中国消费率和投资率的合理性判断：1978-2005

无论从国际比较,还是从对中国资本生产率以及增量资产产出率的分析来看,中国消费率显著低于国际水平,而投资率显著高于国际水平,且偏低的消费率与偏高的投资率存在着明显的不协调。     

Home Equity,Household Savings and Consumption

The home-owning family’s equity is a piggybank that can be broken open by borrowing. Each borrowing increases liabilities and cash equally, initially leaving net wealth unchanged. When those funds are spent and cash balances fall, consumption increases even as net wealth can decline. In a dynamic optimization, the marginal propensity to consume from net wealth is not always positive and can be positively correlated with housing debt.

劳动力流动、征税方式转变与地区福利增进

研究目标：在劳动力流动程度的不同阶段研究税率结构变化与效率和公平之间的关系。研究方法：构建了征税方式转变与劳动力跨区域流动的两地区一般均衡模型进行理论模拟,采用面板门限模型进行实证检验。研究发现：随着劳动力流动程度的提高,在保持宏观税负不变下由增值税转为消费税的税率结构变化可以提升效率水平和改善公平状况。其中征税方式转变对于效率的正影响越来越大,对于公平的影响也由负转正,劳动力流动存在显著的门限效应。研究创新：结合劳动力流动影响因素进行消费税和增值税的税收扭曲效应差异机制的比较研究。研究价值：统筹协调税制结构改革与户籍制度改革,促进劳动力流动与税率结构优化,实现福利增进的双重红利。     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.     

消费结构升级与技术进步

文章将技术进步分解为技术效率与技术创新,并沿着成果转化、自主创新和技术模仿等路径,探讨了消费结构升级对技术进步的影响及条件。文章认为,消费结构升级引导着资源的配置方向;沿着不同的路径,消费结构升级带来了不同形式的技术进步。一方面,消费结构升级可促进科技成果转化,在生产前沿不变的条件下提高技术效率。当发明专利得到更好的保护时,生产者推动成果转化的积极性会提高,这时,可用的科技成果越多,消费结构升级越能推动技术效率提升。另一方面,消费结构升级还能推动企业突破现有的生产前沿,实现技术创新。由于小企业运营更灵活、竞争压力更大,在企业平均规模较小的市场结构中,消费结构升级更能推动技术创新;而政府主导的研发往往缺乏行业需求等信息,可能与消费者的实际需求脱节,因此,政府主导的研发投入越多,消费结构升级越难拉动技术创新。不仅如此,在开放条件下,企业还可以通过模仿去满足消费结构升级带来的新需求,进口越多,模仿的空间越大,这种模仿会提升技术效率,但可能会不利于技术创新。基于1999-2015年的省级面板数据,文章对上述假说进行了检验,结果表明上述论断成立。     

基于个体为本模型的中国碳排放核算模型构建

为合理测算中国碳排放总量, 提出了以单个人为基础的碳排放核算模型。个体碳排放量受其物质资本与人力资本、消费倾向与投资倾向影响,而计算中国碳排放总量还应考虑人口增长的影响。对个体资本投资倾向提出合理假设,进而构建人口增长模型。最后,根据各省GDP分布情况,赋予模型一个初始财富值,核算出中国碳排放总量。     

基于扩展线性支出系统(ELES)的城镇居民消费需求分析——以广西为例

从基本消费需求、需求的收入弹性、边际消费倾向及增量投向系数等角度,运用ELES模型对2010年《广西统计年鉴》提供的城镇居民收入、消费支出等数据进行分析,探讨优化城镇居民消费结构的途径。     

金融发展、交通设施与居民消费———基于半参数可加模型的实证分析

本文利用半参数可加模型实证分析了金融发展水平、交通设施条件与中国居民消费的关系,实证结果表明：（１）金融系统的规模扩张与居民消费存在显著的正向线性关系,而金融系统效率的改善对居民消费则主要表现为倒“Ｕ”型的非线性影响。（２）公共交通和道路设施条件与居民消费的线性关系不同,前者为正,而后者为负,但两者的非线性影响大体一致,均表现为“Ｎ”型趋势。并对如何提升居民消费水平提出了相应的政策建议。     

消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线存在吗?——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

基于消费者责任角度,文章研究了我国消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线,并与生产的环境库兹涅茨曲线进行比较,通过理论分析和实证研究发现：污染转移是消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线和生产的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状产生差异的重要原因;消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线的形状因污染物的不同而发生变化;消费结构对消费的环境库兹涅茨曲线影响较大;高消费地区耐用品消费比重上升导致污染排放增加。     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.